US Housing – Main cause of financial crisis remains depressed

November 26

The United States housing market, which has been the main cause of the financial crisis, remains in the doldrums. Figures released in the US last night show that the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is the most widely used measure of house prices, declined by a further 1.8% in September.

The index, which measures prices in 20 large cities, was down 17.4% on a year on year basis and 21.8% from its July 2006 peak.

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index

   

2008

Change 

2007 

Change 

2006 

Jan 

180.69 

(10.7%) 

202.31 

(0.1%)

202.44 

Feb

175.96

(12.7%)

201.57

(0.8%)

203.19

Mar

172.20

(14.3%)

201.01

(1.3%)

203.65

Apr

169.98

(15.2%)

200.53

(2.1%)

204.82

May

168.60

(15.7%)

200.12

(2.8%)

205.86

Jun

167.78

(15.9%)

199.44

(3.4%)

206.38

Jul

166.34

(16.3%)

198.71

(3.8%)

206.52

Aug

164.60

(16.6%)

197.37

(4.3%)

206.18

Sep

161.56

(17.4%)

195.69

(4.9%)

205.80

Oct

 

 

192.97

(6.1%)

205.41

Nov

 

 

188.94

(7.7%)

204.65

Dec

 

 

184.97

(9.0%)

203.33

Housing markets throughout the US are very mixed with conditions in Southern California, Nevada and Florida particularly depressed while markets in Texas and a number of the northern states are holding up.

The worst performing markets over the past twelve months, in terms of prices, have been:
        Phoenix, Arizona                  -31.9%
        Las Vegas, Nevada             -31.3%
        San Francisco, California     -29.5%
        Miami, Florida                       -28.4%
        Los Angeles, California        -27.6%
The best have been;
         Dallas, Texas                       -2.7%
         Charlotte, North Carolina      -3.5%
         Denver, Colorado                 -5.4%
         Boston, Massachusetts           -5.7%

 Most other US data is weak with October housing starts of 791,000, on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, the lowest since the US Government started compiling statistics in 1959 and there were 4.23 million existing homes for sale at the end of October. There is unlikely to be a major international recovery until the US housing market, consumer confidence and spending improves.
Brian Gaynor, 26 November 2008

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